With seven league matches left in IPL 2026, LSG and MI have already been eliminated from the playoff race. The picture at the top has sharpened further: RCB, GT and SRH have secured qualification, while RR sits most advantageously among the remaining teams. PBKS follows next in line, and although KKR, DC and CSK are still mathematically alive, their chances are marginal. Given there are 128 possible combinations of results still in play, the remaining spots—especially the final positions—are not locked yet, and the probabilities outline how the next outcomes could shape the playoff lineup.
Key takeaways
- LSG and MI are out of playoff contention with seven matches remaining in the league phase.
- RCB, GT and SRH have already qualified for the playoffs.
- RR currently leads the remaining teams in the race, followed by PBKS.
- There are 128 remaining result combinations, meaning multiple finishing scenarios are still possible.
- RCB are stated to be certain to qualify and can still end up tied for the top points position at worst.
Playoff probabilities: who can finish where
RCB’s position is the most secure. They are effectively guaranteed to make the playoffs and, in the points standings, can at minimum finish level for first place. The most challenging scenario for RCB would be a three-way tie for the leading position on points involving GT and SRH. That is still within the “worst case” range described in the probability set.
SRH’s win over CSK on Monday has had a direct impact on the qualification picture. With that result, both SRH and GT are confirmed to have qualified. Looking at the chances of securing at least a share of second place, the probability for SRH and GT is put at a strong 75%. A three-way tie for second place involving SRH and GT is possible as well, but the likelihood is reported as low—just 6.3%.
RR’s route to the top four is comparatively favorable but not guaranteed to be straightforward. The probability assigned to RR finishing among the top four on points is 43.8%. RR can also still end up in a three-way tie for second place alongside SRH and GT, though the odds are not presented as high relative to other outcomes.
PBKS, meanwhile, has a ceiling outcome and a separate range of outcomes beneath it. They can at best finish alone in fourth place, with a 28.1% chance of doing so. Alternatively, PBKS can tie for fourth with KKR, with that specific scenario estimated at 10.9%.
For KKR, the odds of reaching the last four are presented in both solo and shared forms. Their combined probability of qualifying for the top four—either alone or tied with another team—is 20.3%. If KKR does finish in a tie for the final playoff spot, the scenario described is that it would be with PBKS.
DC’s playoff chances are also quantified in terms of solo or shared qualification. Their probability of making the last four is 18.8% when considering both independent and joint qualification possibilities. The best case for DC is finishing alone in fourth place, which is given as 3.1%.
CSK’s outlook has narrowed further after Monday’s defeat. The best-case pathway mentioned for CSK after that loss is a tie for fourth place involving RR, DC, or both. Even with that optimistic scenario, the probability is given as 14.1%, highlighting how much the remaining permutations still work against them.
How the probabilities were calculated
The framework used for these figures is based on the full set of remaining outcomes. With seven league games left, there are 128 possible combinations of results. For each team, the analysis checks how many of those 128 combinations place them in the top four—either by finishing alone or tied on points. A separate check is also performed to see how often each side ends up in the top two, again considering both solo and joint finishes.
One example given for context is RCB’s points position at the top. RCB are described as finishing first on points in all 128 combinations of match outcomes. In some of those scenarios, they would top the table alone, while in others they would share the lead with other teams—reflecting why their qualification is considered certain even though points-sharing scenarios can still vary.
Stay updated with the latest IPL Live Score, IPL news, and match developments as the playoff race continues to evolve. Keep track of the IPL schedule, monitor the IPL points table, and follow the race for the Orange Cap and Purple Cap.
