With three postseason berths already secured by RCB, GT and SRH, the remaining race is now a five-team fight for a single spot. Rajasthan Royals sit in the strongest position, Punjab Kings still have control over much of their fate, and Kolkata Knight Riders, Delhi Capitals and Chennai Super Kings must win while also hoping other results fall their way. As the league stage heads toward its final stretch with just seven matches left, one game can swing the standings for multiple franchises at once.
Key takeaways
- RCB, GT and SRH have already sealed playoff places, leaving just one berth for the chasing group.
- RR are best placed at 12 points with two matches remaining, and their path looks comparatively straightforward.
- PBKS are on 13 points and must win their next match versus LSG to keep their chances alive.
- KKR need victories in both of their remaining fixtures, with qualification depending on what RR and PBKS do.
- DC and CSK face the hardest equations, needing results to go their way while also confronting weak net run rate scenarios.
Rajasthan Royals: one victory may open the door, two likely slam it shut
Rajasthan Royals hold the advantage over the other contenders because they still have two games left and already occupy 12 points. If they win both—against Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians—they would finish on 16, a total that would almost certainly secure qualification no matter how other teams fare.
The real question is whether RR can qualify with just one win from their last two. If they beat LSG at Jaipur, they would rise to 14 points, immediately applying pressure on PBKS, KKR, DC and CSK, all of whom would then be forced to reassess their margin for error.
In that situation, RR would be looking for the following outcomes:
- PBKS to lose at least one of their remaining matches versus LSG
- KKR to drop at least one game among their two remaining fixtures against MI or DC
- DC to lose to KKR
- CSK to lose to GT
Under the most favorable RR script, they would win twice and reach 16 points, effectively eliminating every other team still mathematically in contention, regardless of other results.
The concern for Rajasthan is momentum. They have lost four of their last five matches, and their net run rate currently sits at 0.027, which does not provide much protection if multiple sides end up level on 14. A heavy defeat in either of the remaining games could push them into a more precarious outcome range.
Punjab Kings: win versus LSG first, then monitor the chaos
Punjab Kings currently sit on 13 points from 13 matches, giving them an equation that looks simple on paper. Their next requirement is direct: beat LSG in Lucknow, and they move to 15 points.
A finish on 15 might be enough because none of KKR, DC or CSK can rise above 15. However, PBKS remain exposed if RR manage two wins from their final pair. Form and scheduling also add pressure—PBKS are coming off five consecutive defeats, and they will play after several key rivals have already completed their fixtures, leaving them less room to react to what others do.
The best-case set of conditions for PBKS can be framed like this:
- PBKS beat LSG
- RR lose at least one of their two remaining matches
- KKR fail to win both of their remaining games
- DC win against KKR by a close margin
- CSK lose to GT
- A loss to LSG for PBKS, however, would almost certainly end their campaign
If PBKS lose to LSG, they would remain on 13. That total can be overtaken by RR and CSK with only one more win, while KKR would be able to cross the line with two victories.
Chennai Super Kings: mathematics, not momentum, keeps the door ajar
Chennai Super Kings’ defeat to SRH has left them needing one of the most unlikely combinations of results among the teams still mathematically alive. CSK are on 12 points from 13 matches, and their maximum is 14—if they beat GT in Ahmedabad.
Even reaching 14 may not be sufficient unless nearly everything else breaks in CSK’s favor. For Chennai to seriously contend, these outcomes must align:
- CSK beat GT
- RR lose both remaining games and stay on 12
- PBKS lose to LSG and remain on 13
- KKR lose at least one match and finish on 13 or below
- DC lose to KKR and finish on 12
That is a narrow path, and net run rate could still complicate the final standings. CSK’s net run rate is -0.016, which is better than DC’s -0.871 and marginally ahead of KKR’s -0.038, but it is not strong enough to feel safe if multiple teams end up level on 14.
The biggest issue for CSK is that they no longer fully control the ceiling of their rivals. RR can still reach 16, PBKS can reach 15, and KKR can also climb to 15—reducing the margin for error for Chennai’s already difficult scenario.
Kolkata Knight Riders: two wins are required, and the rest must cooperate
Kolkata Knight Riders are the only other team in the chasing pack, alongside RR, that still has two matches left. With 11 points from 12 games, KKR cannot afford a single slip.
Wins against Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals would take them to 15 points. Anything less would mean they are eliminated.
However, even winning both games might not settle matters completely, because KKR’s qualification depends heavily on what happens with RR and PBKS. The most favorable KKR sequence is:
- KKR beat MI and DC
- RR lose at least one of their remaining two matches
- PBKS lose to LSG and remain on 13
- GT beat CSK
If those results fall into place, KKR would finish on 15 and would likely take the fourth spot outright.
There is also a scenario where KKR finish tied on 15 with PBKS. In that case, net run rate decides the final ordering. With KKR’s current net run rate at -0.038, they cannot rely on “comfortable” wins alone; the size of victories could become decisive.
What gives KKR an edge is momentum. Unlike some rivals around them, they have won four of their last five matches and appear to be peaking at the right time.
Delhi Capitals: beat KKR, then depend on collapses elsewhere
Delhi Capitals face the toughest equation among the realistic contenders because they have only one match remaining, and they carry an inferior net run rate. At 12 points from 13 games, even a win over KKR would lift them only to 14—meaning DC cannot qualify on their own terms.
For Delhi to reach the playoffs, the required chain of results is:
- DC beat KKR
- RR lose both remaining matches and remain on 12
- PBKS lose to LSG and remain on 13
- CSK lose to GT
Even if those conditions are met, net run rate could still determine the final outcome. DC’s net run rate is -0.871, which is comfortably the weakest among the contenders. If qualification comes down to a points tie, Delhi are almost certain to be disadvantaged by that gap.
There is a twist, though: DC might still play a significant role in shaping the playoff race even if they themselves do not qualify. A win against KKR could knock Kolkata out and potentially open the door for RR or PBKS. A defeat, meanwhile, could directly allow KKR to advance.
