With just six outings remaining in the league phase of IPL 2026, the race for the final playoff berth is still open for four franchises. However, Delhi Capitals (DC) sit with a severely damaged net run rate, leaving their path to the knockout stage virtually out of reach.
Rajasthan Royals: qualification is back in their control
Rajasthan Royals (RR) have played 13 matches, collecting 14 points with a net run rate of 0.083. Their remaining fixture is against Mumbai Indians (MI) away.
RR’s qualification hopes were strengthened by their win over Lucknow Super Giants (LSG). From here, their destiny is largely in their own hands: if they defeat MI on Sunday, they will reach 16 points and secure a playoff place regardless of what happens in other games.
There is also a faint possibility of finishing in the top two, but it depends on heavy losses elsewhere and tight calculations. If Gujarat Titans (GT) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) both lose, RR could climb higher—though the required swing in results makes that scenario unlikely.
At present, GT hold a superior net run rate to SRH. For RR to surpass them under a specific set of outcomes, the margins become extremely demanding. One such projection runs like this: if GT are beaten by Chennai Super Kings (CSK) by 30 runs, then RR would need to beat MI by 50 runs. Put simply, the combined margin from the two linked results would need to add up to at least 80 runs (assuming an opening-innings target of 200).
If RR lose to MI, what happens then?
A defeat to MI would not automatically end the playoff dream, but it would push RR into a narrow qualification picture where other results must cooperate and net run rate calculations would come into play.
- Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) would have to lose to MI, but still beat DC.
- Punjab Kings (PBKS) would have to lose to Lucknow Super Giants (LSG).
- CSK would have to lose to GT.
There is also a particular three-team tie scenario to consider. If CSK and DC both win their final matches while RR lose theirs, then RR, CSK and DC would all finish on 14 points. That would set up an NRR contest between the sides, provided KKR and PBKS do not rise beyond 13 points.
RR’s win over LSG carries another consequence: the final playoff spot will not be decided before May 24, which is the last day of the league stage.
Punjab Kings: a late win, plus a web of results
Punjab Kings (PBKS) have played 13 matches, with 13 points and a net run rate of 0.227. Their remaining game is away against LSG.
PBKS must win their final match against LSG. But a victory alone will not be enough—they also need RR to lose to MI, and they need KKR to avoid finishing on 15 points with a better net run rate.
A key chain reaction is outlined below. If PBKS win on Saturday, RR drop their last game, and KKR win both of their remaining fixtures, then PBKS and KKR would both finish on 15 points, forcing net run rate into the equation.
Using one example calculation: if PBKS score 200 and win by 10 runs, KKR would need to win their two matches by a combined margin of 72 runs to move ahead on net run rate. Any smaller combined margin would allow PBKS to finish higher on the points table.
Chennai Super Kings: fourth place is still possible, but only with multiple swings
Chennai Super Kings (CSK) have played 13 matches, with 12 points and a net run rate of -0.016. Their remaining fixture is away against GT.
CSK’s route to fourth place requires several results to fall in their favour. They need RR and PBKS to lose their last games, and they need KKR to end their campaign with no more than 13 points.
If those conditions are met, CSK could potentially overtake RR because their net run rates are close. The margins required are still tight: for CSK to finish ahead of RR, the combined swing from two linked outcomes—RR’s defeat and CSK’s win—must total 25 runs (again, using the assumption of a first-innings score of 200).
CSK’s case is also sharply contrasted with DC’s situation. DC’s net run rate is far too poor to pose any realistic threat. Even if CSK were to win by just one run, DC would still need to win by more than 200 runs to get past CSK’s net run rate.
Kolkata Knight Riders and Delhi Capitals: permutations at one end, reality at the other
Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) have played 12 matches, with 11 points and a net run rate of -0.038. Their remaining fixtures are at home against MI and at home against DC.
KKR can still reach the playoffs without relying on net run rate, provided they win both of their remaining matches and both RR and PBKS lose their last games.
However, the outcome of those other fixtures matters. If RR win their match, KKR are ruled out. If PBKS win, then KKR and PBKS would finish level on 15 points.
In the event PBKS win by 10 runs, a previously mentioned net run rate scenario returns: KKR would need to win their two matches by a combined margin of 72 runs (assuming they each bat first and score 200 in those games) to go past PBKS.
Delhi Capitals (DC) have played 13 matches, collected 12 points, and have a net run rate of -0.871. Their remaining fixture is away against KKR.
RR’s win over LSG has effectively ended DC’s campaign. Even if every other result goes DC’s way—meaning PBKS, CSK and KKR all finish below 14—DC would still need an extraordinary net run rate swing to overtake RR. If DC beat KKR, the combined margins from the two linked outcomes—RR’s defeat and DC’s win—would still need to be around 230 runs for DC’s net run rate to surpass RR’s.
