The race for the final playoff place in IPL 2026 has narrowed to four franchises after Gujarat Titans put Chennai Super Kings to the sword in Ahmedabad, winning by 89 runs. That decisive result formally ended CSK’s hopes of reaching the postseason and left GT on the brink of a top-two finish.
With three teams already confirmed in the playoffs—Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans, and Sunrisers Hyderabad—the remaining battle is for the last available berth. The fight now involves Rajasthan Royals, Punjab Kings, Kolkata Knight Riders, and Delhi Capitals.
GT’s statement win tightens the top-two race
Gujarat Titans’ emphatic victory lifted them to 18 points, carrying a net run rate of +0.695. Even so, it still didn’t allow them to leapfrog Royal Challengers Bengaluru at the top, with RCB holding the edge on net run rate.
RCB now face Sunrisers Hyderabad on the day of their final league game. To keep their top position, RCB’s requirement is simple: avoid a heavy loss against SRH at the venue in Hyderabad.
A win would take RCB to 20 points and secure their place in Qualifier 1. Still, SRH have plenty to play for even though they are already through to the playoffs. If SRH can overtake GT and finish in the top two, they would need an exceptional margin of victory over RCB.
If SRH bat first, the likely target would be to win by roughly 87 to 89 runs, with the exact cushion depending on RCB’s first-innings total landing somewhere between 180 and 240. Should RCB set a target, SRH’s pursuit would probably need to be completed in under 12 overs to keep the equation in their favour.
Rajasthan Royals remain favourites for the last spot
Rajasthan Royals are currently the leading contenders to claim the final playoff berth. They sit on 14 points and have one match remaining, against the eliminated Mumbai Indians on Sunday. A win at Wankhede would move RR to 16 points, which would be enough because none of the other teams still in contention can reach 16 from here.
RR’s position is further strengthened by the fixture timing. By the time RR take the field on Sunday afternoon, they will already know how the other key match between Lucknow Super Giants and Punjab Kings ends—particularly because Punjab Kings are RR’s closest rival in the race for fourth.
RR’s best-case scenario is clear:
- RR beat MI
- PBKS lose to LSG
- LSG beat DC
- KKR beat KKR
The main threat to RR is their relatively small net run rate, currently at +0.083. A large defeat to MI, combined with wins for Punjab Kings or Kolkata Knight Riders, could still scramble the picture. In that case, RR could be left on 14 points, with PBKS and KKR finishing on 15—meaning the superior net run rate between those two would decide who makes the playoffs.
Conversely, an RR loss would benefit both KKR and DC, because it would sharpen their chase in the final league match—leaving them with a much clearer target of what is required to reach the last spot.
Punjab Kings’ pathway: win, then hope for results
Punjab Kings are still mathematically alive even after suffering five consecutive defeats. If they beat the eliminated Lucknow Super Giants, they would reach 15 points, which could still be sufficient for fourth place.
That would also turn Sunday’s two other fixtures into near knockouts for RR and KKR. However, PBKS’ biggest hope is that MI plays a role in the equation by upsetting RR.
If RR win and move to 16, Punjab Kings would be unable to finish above them. If PBKS win but RR lose, then the outcome of KKR vs DC becomes crucial. Because KKR and PBKS meet directly, a KKR win would add complexity for Punjab Kings, while a DC win would likely send PBKS through.
One advantage PBKS do have is a healthier net run rate over RR and KKR, meaning that ties on points could still work in their favour.
PBKS’ equation can be boiled down to:
- Beat LSG
- Hope RR lose to MI
- Hope DC beat KKR
Kolkata Knight Riders face a virtual knockout
Kolkata Knight Riders kept their hopes alive earlier in the week by beating Mumbai Indians. They are on 13 points with one game remaining and now face Delhi Capitals in what has essentially become a knockout situation.
A win for KKR would bring them to 15 points and keep them in the race. A loss would end their campaign.
Even if KKR beat DC, they would still require RR to lose to MI. If RR win and reach 16, KKR cannot catch them. KKR would also prefer Punjab Kings to lose to LSG, because if PBKS reach 15, the net run rate situation would likely reintroduce uncertainty into the final outcome.
A key positive for KKR is that their net run rate has finally moved into positive territory at +0.011 after the MI victory, giving them at least a fighting chance if points are tied.
KKR’s situation is therefore dependent on the following results:
- Hope PBKS lose to LSG
- Hope RR lose to MI
- Beat DC
Delhi Capitals’ challenge looks steep
Delhi Capitals remain mathematically in the hunt but their route to qualification is arguably the toughest. Their net run rate of -0.871 is the worst among the teams still chasing a spot, which means a points tie would almost certainly not help them.
To stay alive, DC must beat KKR in their final league fixture. That would take them to 14 points. Even then, qualification would still require multiple other outcomes to fall their way, namely RR losing to MI and PBKS losing to LSG.
Under that sequence, DC could still require a significant net run rate swing depending on how large the margins are in those matches.
In practical terms, DC likely need:
- A dominant win over KKR
- RR to lose heavily to MI
- PBKS to lose
Anything short of a large-margin combination of results could mean the end of DC’s season.
For the latest IPL live updates, match scores, and season news—along with the IPL schedule, points table, and the race for the Orange Cap and Purple Cap—keep tracking all developments as the league stage reaches its final turns.
