With 13 league matches left, LSG and MI are already beyond the playoff picture, while GT and RCB are close to sealing their places. SRH still control their destiny but would need a major collapse from here to miss out. PBKS are also well placed to reach the knockout stage, and CSK along with RR both have a slightly better-than-even likelihood of finishing inside the top four on points, even if the final standings are shared. Meanwhile, KKR and DC are left with very limited paths. In total, there are 8,192 different result combinations still possible across the remaining fixtures, meaning the playoff race is far from settled for any of the eight teams still in contention.
Playoff odds: top-four and top-two scenarios
- GT: 99.7% chance to finish inside the top four on points (including tied finishes). Their odds of landing in first or second are 82.6% when considered jointly or separately.
- RCB: After Wednesday’s win, RCB have a 99% probability of finishing in the top four by points and a 77.6% probability of occupying one of the top two positions.
- SRH: 77% chance to make the top four on points, but only a 31.4% chance to finish in the top two.
- PBKS: 63.6% chance to end in the top four on points, along with just a 22.2% chance to finish among the top two.
- CSK: 53.2% chance to finish in the top four, with a 19% chance to secure one of the top two spots.
- RR: 53% chance to make the top four and only a 15.3% chance to finish in the top two.
- KKR: Their slim chance of reaching the last four dropped further after Wednesday’s defeat, shrinking to 2.6%. They also can no longer even end level for a top-two finish.
- DC: DC’s playoff hopes sit at 2.7%. At best, they can finish third, level with between two and three other sides.
Why the probabilities are still wide open
The wide range of outcomes comes from the sheer number of remaining permutations. With 13 matches left in the league stage, there are 8,192 possible combinations of results still in play across the remaining schedule.
To convert those permutations into playoff probabilities, the same method was applied to every team:
- For each franchise, the number of remaining result combinations that place it inside the top four was counted—whether that happens outright or through tied finishes on points.
- Separately, the number of combinations that place the team in the top two was also counted—again accounting for both outright finishes and shared positions.
- Those counts were then translated into percentages by comparing them against the full set of 8,192 possible outcome combinations.
Example: DC’s narrow window
- DC finishing in the top four: Only 220 of the 8,192 possible match-outcome combinations result in DC being in the top four. That equates to a 2.7% chance.
- Tied reality: Even that 2.7% scenario is not guaranteed to be an outright finish—it is based on finishing inside the top four either alone or tied with other teams.
With the league still far from complete and thousands of result permutations left, the playoff race remains fluid—especially for the teams clustered in the middle of the points table, even as the probabilities show who is most likely to book a knockout berth.
