With 12 league matches left, Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) are already out of the playoff picture. Gujarat Titans (GT) and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) are close to locking in qualification, while Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) still control their fate but need a strong run—otherwise they risk missing the top four. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) currently sit with a fairly balanced shot at finishing in the top bracket on points, even if that scenario ends up being shared on ties. Punjab Kings (PBKS) have seen their prospects drop sharply after their loss on Thursday, while Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Delhi Capitals (DC) are left with only very remote chances. In all, there are 4,096 different possible outcome combinations remaining, meaning no team in the remaining race can be declared safe just yet. Here is how the probabilities shape up.
Playoff race: projected top-four and top-two chances
- GT: 99.9% chance of finishing in the top four on points (including possible ties). Their likelihood of ending up in first or second place—alone or shared—is 79.1%.
- RCB: 99.3% chance of finishing among the top four by points. Their odds of being in the top two—alone or jointly—stand at 81.9%.
- SRH: 79.7% chance to reach the top four by points. They have a 36% chance of finishing in the top two.
- PBKS: After Thursday’s defeat to MI, their top-four odds on points have fallen to 43.8%. Their chance of finishing in the top two is now just 8.3%.
- CSK: 56.3% chance of making the top four. They have a 22.2% chance of landing in the top two.
- RR: 57% chance of finishing in the top four. Their top-two odds are 17.9%.
- KKR: Only 3.7% chance of reaching the top four. They can no longer even end up tied for a top-two finish.
- DC: 4.2% chance of making the playoffs. At best, they can finish tied fourth, with the standings involving anywhere from two to three other teams.
How the numbers were calculated
The projections are built from the remaining 4,096 permutations of match outcomes with 12 games still to be played. For each franchise, the analysis counted how many of those outcome sets result in the side finishing in the top four—either outright or level on points. A similar method was used for the top two, where the count includes both outright finishing and scenarios where positions are shared due to ties.
To illustrate the approach: DC are placed in the top four in only 172 of the 4,096 possible outcome combinations. That converts to a 4.2% chance of making the top four, and even that result is possible only in a tied context rather than as a standalone finish.
