With 11 league matches left, Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) have already fallen out of the playoff race. Gujarat Titans (GT) can still miss out only through the net run-rate route, while Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) are close to locking a top-four spot. Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) need a major shift in fortunes from here, whereas Rajasthan Royals (RR) look set for a strong finish.
Punjab Kings (PBKS) sit in a more balanced position for a top-four finish by points, even if multiple teams end level. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) have taken a sharp hit after Friday’s defeat, while Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Delhi Capitals (DC) are left with very slim prospects. In total, there are 2,048 possible outcomes still available, meaning no club in the remaining group can be called safe with certainty.
Quick facts: playoff probabilities
- GT: 90.2% chance to finish first or second (singly or jointly); 100% chance to be in the top four by points (though not necessarily automatically qualified due to possible ties).
- RCB: 99.4% chance to finish in the top four by points; 83.4% chance to finish in the top two.
- SRH: 82.8% chance to finish in the top four by points; 38.9% chance to finish in the top two.
- PBKS: 50.3% chance to finish in the top four by points; 9.8% chance to finish in the top two.
- CSK: 35.9% chance to finish in the top four by points after Friday’s loss; 11.1% chance to finish in the top two.
- RR: 60.4% chance to finish in the top four by points; 19.9% chance to finish in the top two.
- KKR: 5.1% chance to make the top four; no longer in contention for the top two slots.
- DC: 6.1% chance to make the playoffs; likewise not in contention for the top two slots.
What the numbers suggest
GT’s position is the most comfortable in the points race: they are assured of a top-four finish on points, even if several scenarios could still leave them tied with other sides. RCB’s profile is similarly dominant, with a near-certain path to the top four and an even stronger likelihood of landing in the top two, which would be a major advantage heading into the knockout phase.
SRH remain mathematically alive for the upper places, but their percentage outlook is notably lower than RCB and GT. PBKS have a reasonable route to the top four but face a tough climb toward finishing in the top two. CSK’s playoff odds have been dented considerably after their Friday loss, shrinking their margin for error in the closing league stretch.
RR are trending upward, improving their chances of breaking into the top four and keeping their hopes alive for a top-two finish. Meanwhile, KKR and DC are left with only remote paths into the playoffs, and both are effectively out of the running for the top two spots as the tournament heads toward its crucial final phase.
How the probabilities were calculated
The playoff forecasts are built from the remaining schedule: with 11 matches left, there are 2,048 possible combinations of results. For each franchise, the method checks how many of those combinations place the team inside the top four by points—either outright or through ties.
The same framework is used to measure top-two chances. It counts how many of the 2,048 scenarios result in each team finishing in the top two, either alone or shared with another club, depending on how points finish across the table. GT’s top-four certainty, for example, comes from occurring in every one of those combinations, even though not all scenarios guarantee qualification in a straightforward way due to the possibility of ties and the tournament’s tie-handling routes.
With the league stage still far from settled, the race remains volatile: plenty of combinations can still flip the order of finishers. For now, the probabilities point to a clear hierarchy—led by GT and RCB, followed by RR and SRH—while CSK, KKR, DC and PBKS will need strong finishes to translate their chances into qualification.
