With 14 league matches still to be played, the playoff picture is already practically locked for some and still uncertain for others. Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians are out of the running, while Delhi Capitals are hanging on by a thread. Gujarat Titans are close to sealing their place in the top four, and Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Sunrisers Hyderabad would need a major collapse from the remaining games to miss out.
Punjab Kings remain in a comfortable position to reach the knockouts, while Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals have a slightly better-than-even outlook to finish inside the top four on points, even if ties are involved. Kolkata Knight Riders still have a narrow route to qualification. Overall, there are 16,384 different ways the remaining results can unfold, meaning no one in the current mix is guaranteed a playoff spot yet.
Quick facts: probability of finishing in the top two or top four
- Gujarat Titans: 99.6% to finish in the top four; 84.5% to finish in the top two.
- Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 88.1% for top four; 59.0% for top two.
- Sunrisers Hyderabad: 76.8% for top four; 35.5% for top two.
- Punjab Kings: 64.5% for top four; 28.8% for top two.
- Chennai Super Kings: 53.9% for top four; 22.0% for top two.
- Rajasthan Royals: 53.8% for top four; 18.2% for top two.
- Kolkata Knight Riders: 12.8% for top four; 3.6% for top two.
- Delhi Capitals: 3.2% probability to make the playoffs.
Gujarat Titans’ position strengthened after Tuesday’s win, which has essentially ensured they will land among the top four on points. Their likelihood of ending the league phase in either first or second place—whether alone or shared due to a points tie—stands at 84.5%, a standout number in the current race.
For Royal Challengers Bengaluru, the probability profile is also strong. They are rated at an 88.1% chance to finish inside the top four on points, and they hold a 59% shot at occupying one of the top two spots, again accounting for any scenario where places are shared.
Sunrisers Hyderabad took a hit after Tuesday’s defeat, with their top-four chances dropping to 76.8%. Their odds of finishing inside the top two have narrowed to 35.5%, leaving them needing their remaining fixtures to go far more smoothly than before.
Punjab Kings, meanwhile, continue to look well placed. Their chances of ending among the top four on points are 64.5%, but the outlook is tougher for the top two, where their probability is 28.8%.
Chennai Super Kings sit just above the qualification line for the top four at 53.9%, but their path to the top two is significantly more difficult, with only a 22% chance of finishing there. Rajasthan Royals are almost identical in the top-four race, rated at 53.8%, though their chances of securing a top-two finish are even slimmer at 18.2%.
Kolkata Knight Riders have the longest odds of the eight-team group still in play. They are given only a 12.8% chance of making the last four, and while it is still possible for them to end up in the top two based on points, the probability is extremely small at 3.6%.
Delhi Capitals have kept their playoff hopes alive, but only barely, with a 3.2% probability to qualify. In their best-case scenario, they can finish third, level on points with anywhere between two and three other teams.
How the probabilities were worked out
The numbers are derived from the remaining permutations in the league stage. With 14 matches left, there are 16,384 possible combinations of results. For each side, the calculation considers how often that team ends up in the top four, either by itself or via points ties, and similarly how often it lands in the top two, either alone or jointly.
For example, Gujarat Titans are projected to finish in the top four in 16,324 of those 16,384 possible outcome combinations. That translates directly into the 99.6% probability of a top-four finish, singly or tied.
