With three playoff spots already secured for Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans and Sunrisers Hyderabad, the attention in the IPL is firmly fixed on the last available berth. Six matches remain in the league phase, and while Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants have been eliminated, five franchises still have a mathematical pathway to qualification: Rajasthan Royals, Punjab Kings, Chennai Super Kings, Delhi Capitals and Kolkata Knight Riders.
Rajasthan Royals: One win should do it
Rajasthan Royals have moved into a commanding position, climbing to 14 points from 13 matches. They sit fourth with a slightly improved net run rate, and among the teams still chasing the final playoff place, they hold the clearest advantage.
Remaining fixture: vs MI (Away)
For RR, the situation is simple. A victory over Mumbai Indians would take them to 16 points, which would confirm the final IPL 2026 playoff spot outright.
The schedule also works in their favour. When Rajasthan play MI on the afternoon of May 24, they will already know the outcomes from other key clashes: KKR vs MI, GT vs CSK, SRH vs RCB and LSG vs PBKS. That means RR could potentially walk into Wankhede with clarity over the target they need, based on what has already unfolded.
The most comfortable RR outcome looks like this:
KKR lose to MI
CSK lose to GT
PBKS lose to LSG
If those three results fall into place, Rajasthan would even be able to qualify before taking the field against MI.
What RR would prefer to avoid is a tight 14-point situation that also involves Delhi Capitals and Chennai Super Kings. Their net run rate is only marginally positive at the moment, so a heavy loss to MI could still pull them into a complicated scenario if multiple teams finish level.
Still, compared with the rest of the contenders, RR remain best placed because they control their own destiny.
Punjab Kings: Must beat LSG and hope others stumble
Punjab Kings have suffered at the wrong moment, losing five matches in a row, but they are not out of the race yet.
Remaining fixture: vs LSG (Away)
A win over Lucknow Super Giants would bring PBKS to 15 points. That total could be enough for fourth place, but only if results elsewhere go in their favour.
Before PBKS play LSG, their key reference match is KKR vs MI. If KKR lose that game, one direct rival’s chances would take a hit. PBKS would also want Gujarat Titans to get the better of Chennai Super Kings, since a CSK win would lift them to 14 points—moving ahead of PBKS before Punjab’s final match and increasing pressure on Shreyas Iyer’s side.
The best-case PBKS situation is:
KKR lose to MI
CSK lose to GT
RR lose to MI
DC lose to KKR
However, if Rajasthan beat Mumbai Indians on Saturday, then the outcome of PBKS vs LSG becomes far less relevant—because RR would jump to 16 points and secure the last IPL 2026 playoff position ahead of PBKS.
Chennai Super Kings: Need two wins and plenty of help
Chennai Super Kings are still in the hunt mathematically, but the margin for error is extremely slim given how much ground they likely left themselves earlier in the season.
Remaining fixture: vs GT (Away)
A win over Gujarat Titans would move CSK to 14 points, but even then qualification looks unlikely unless multiple other results break their way.
First on CSK’s checklist is a defeat for KKR against MI. If KKR win both of their remaining games, they could reach 15 points and effectively edge ahead. Chennai would also prefer Punjab Kings to lose to LSG, because otherwise PBKS could also reach 15.
Most crucially, CSK would need Rajasthan to drop points against MI. If RR win and reach 16, the remaining playoff permutations would largely close out.
The ideal CSK scenario is:
Beat GT convincingly to improve NRR
KKR lose at least one game
PBKS lose to LSG
RR lose to MI
DC lose to KKR
Even with those results, CSK could still end up level on 14 points with Rajasthan, which would make net run rate the deciding factor.
The challenge for Chennai is that their net run rate is currently slightly negative. If qualification comes down to a multi-team tie at 14, CSK may need a large-margin win over GT to swing the numbers in their favour.
Chennai’s chances are slim, but they are not impossible.
Delhi Capitals: One win needed, and even that may not be enough
Delhi Capitals have one match left, giving them a path to 14 points. Yet their net run rate is a major concern, leaving them with limited room for error.
Remaining fixture: vs KKR (Away)
The biggest issue for DC is their net run rate of -0.871, which is far worse than every other contender. That makes any points tie a serious risk.
The ideal DC scenario is:
KKR lose to MI
RR lose to MI
PBKS lose to LSG
DC beat KKR by a big margin
If those results occur, the final league game between KKR and DC effectively becomes a knockout-style contest—whoever loses is out, while the winner moves ahead.
Kolkata Knight Riders: Must win both, and still depend on others
Kolkata Knight Riders likely have the toughest road among the realistic contenders, even though they are still alive for the final spot.
Remaining fixtures: vs MI (Home) and vs DC (Home)
KKR currently have 11 points from 12 matches. Winning both remaining games would bring them to 15 points and keep their qualification hopes intact.
The best-case KKR path looks like this:
Beat MI
Beat DC
GT beat CSK
LSG beat PBK
RR lose to MI
If all of those results happen, KKR can potentially sneak into the playoffs with 15 points.
The complication for KKR is that even after winning both matches, they could still be caught depending on how other teams finish—particularly if RR reach 16 points or if PBKS climb to 15 with a stronger net run rate.
Their own net run rate is only slightly negative, so KKR cannot afford narrow victories. A dominant win against MI would meaningfully strengthen their position heading into the showdown with DC on the final day.
A positive for KKR is the order of matches. They play once before RR take on MI, allowing KKR to keep pressure on Rajasthan and potentially force RR into a must-win scenario.
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