With the league phase nearing its finish in the Indian Premier League and just 10 days remaining, the race for the four play-off spots has tightened dramatically. Chennai Super Kings and Kolkata Knight Riders have both found momentum late, taking the number of teams realistically in contention to eight. Royal Challengers Bengaluru, the defending champions RCB, and Gujarat Titans were widely viewed as safe bets to reach the knockout stage, yet the standings have shifted. SunRisers Hyderabad have also climbed into the picture after a sluggish start, while Punjab Kings have provided the biggest surprise by sliding sharply after looking comfortable earlier in the campaign.
Punjab Kings have now dropped four matches in a row, leaving them in a precarious position after dominating much of the first half of the league. Meanwhile, Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants have already been ruled out of the play-off race. PTI has mapped out the qualification possibilities for the eight teams still chasing knockout berths.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
Under the leadership of Rajat Patidar, RCB have managed to hold onto the steadiness that helped them win their first IPL title last year after a long wait. They take on KKR on Wednesday night, and a victory would put them within touching distance of qualification. Another win thereafter would likely be required to secure a top-four place, with 18 points viewed as the safer target compared to 16. Notably, only Mumbai Indians reached the last four last season with a total of 16 points.
RCB have collected 14 points from seven wins in 11 outings and boast the strongest net run rate among the teams still in contention. Following their match against KKR, their remaining fixtures are against Punjab Kings and SunRisers Hyderabad.
Punjab Kings
Poor bowling displays and fielding errors have contributed to Punjab Kings losing four successive games, yet they still sit inside the top four thanks to the strong start they made earlier in the competition. Even with the recent slump, their net run rate remains in good shape due to their performances in the first half of the league.
Punjab’s path to the play-offs depends on getting results from their final stretch. Two victories out of the three matches left against Mumbai Indians, RCB and SRH are expected to be sufficient. They currently have 13 points from 11 games, with one point earned via a washout against KKR. The clash against Mumbai Indians in Dharamsala is described as a must-win, otherwise their situation could become increasingly difficult heading into the final two fixtures.
Gujarat Titans
Since their entry in 2022, Gujarat Titans have missed the play-offs only once. With their bowling unit firing and a reliable top three, the Shubman Gill-led side appears well placed to finish in the top two. After a strong run through the season, they have already amassed 16 points from eight wins in 12 games, which has them on the verge of booking their place in the knockouts.
Their final two matches are scheduled against KKR and Chennai Super Kings.
SunRisers Hyderabad
SunRisers Hyderabad, too, are building momentum at the right stage. They have won six of their last eight matches, and their aggressive batting approach has been a key factor, backed by bowling performances with Pat Cummins leading the unit. SRH are on 14 points with two games remaining, facing Chennai Super Kings and RCB.
To reach the play-offs, SRH would need at least two more points—four may not be necessary if results fall their way—while their net run rate of 0.031 also works in their favour. Their fifth defeat in 12 matches came on Tuesday night, when Gujarat Titans beat them.
Chennai Super Kings
Chennai Super Kings began the season poorly, losing their first three matches, but they have responded with a strong revival. CSK have won six of their last eight games and will believe they can pick up crucial points against Lucknow Super Giants on May 15. After that, they will play SRH and Gujarat Titans in their final two league matches.
In the current scenario, 18 points are expected to be the mark that guarantees qualification. With the teams still in contention facing each other across the next 10 days, CSK’s best route appears to be winning all their remaining matches.
Kolkata Knight Riders
Kolkata Knight Riders, led by Ajinkya Rahane, endured a disastrous first half of the league. Yet they kept their season alive by winning their last four matches after suffering six consecutive defeats. Even now, they have a game in hand compared to some of the other sides, which keeps their ceiling at 17 points—potentially enough to qualify.
KKR will also be finishing strongly at home, with their last three games scheduled at their home venues.
Rajasthan Royals
Rajasthan Royals have struggled to turn individual moments into sustained results. Despite brilliance from Vaibhav Sooryavanshi and Dhruv Jurel, the Royals have not found the consistency required for steady qualification. They started their campaign with four straight wins, but after that they lost momentum, dropping five of their last seven games. Bowling has been a recurring concern for them, similar to the issues Punjab Kings have faced.
With 12 points from 11 matches, Rajasthan also need to win at least a couple of their remaining three games and depend on other results going their way. Their fixtures left include matches against Delhi Capitals, Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians—an outlook that could boost their confidence given the form and performances of those opponents.
Delhi Capitals
Delhi Capitals’ qualification hopes are hanging by a thread. Although the Axar Patel-led side has already begun preparing for the next season mindset, their current position remains precarious. Even after beating Punjab Kings, Delhi still have too much ground to cover to reach the play-offs.
They currently have 10 points from 12 games and can finish with a maximum of 14 points. Even victories by large margins are not expected to guarantee a place in the top four.
