With just five fixtures remaining in the league stage of IPL 2026, the race for the final playoffs slot is tightening. Four franchises still have a plausible route into the knockouts, while Delhi Capitals remain technically alive—but their net run-rate is so steeply negative that qualification looks highly unlikely.
Quick facts: qualification scenarios
- Kolkata Knight Riders: Played 13, Points 13, NRR 0.011; remaining match vs DC (home).
- Chennai Super Kings: Played 13, Points 12, NRR -0.016; remaining match vs GT (away).
- Rajasthan Royals: Played 13, Points 14, NRR 0.083; remaining match vs MI (away).
- Punjab Kings: Played 13, Points 13, NRR 0.227; remaining match vs LSG (away).
- Delhi Capitals: Played 13, Points 12, NRR -0.871; remaining match vs KKR (away).
Kolkata Knight Riders
KKR’s win over MI keeps them in the hunt for the fourth spot, and it has pushed their net run-rate into positive territory. If they win their last game against Delhi Capitals at home on Sunday, and if both Rajasthan Royals and Punjab Kings lose their final matches, then KKR can reach the playoffs without needing net run-rate calculations to decide the issue.
Should Rajasthan win, KKR’s path closes. However, if Rajasthan loses and Punjab Kings beat LSG, KKR will be forced into a high-margin victory on Sunday, with net run-rate again becoming decisive.
Even a very narrow win margin scenario leaves KKR with a steep target: if Punjab Kings win by a solitary run, KKR would need to win by at least 52 runs to finish ahead on net run-rate (using an assumed first-innings total of 200). If Punjab Kings win by 10 runs instead, then KKR’s required winning margin rises to 61 runs to end with a better net run-rate.
Chennai Super Kings
Chennai Super Kings need multiple results to fall their way to claim fourth place. Their requirement is clear: Rajasthan, Punjab Kings and KKR all must lose their last matches.
If those outcomes happen, CSK can potentially leapfrog Rajasthan because the two sides’ net run-rates are close. For CSK to finish above Rajasthan, the combined swing from Rajasthan’s defeat and CSK’s win needs to total 25 runs (again, using an assumed first-innings score of 200).
Delhi Capitals are not a realistic threat in this scramble due to their sharply negative net run-rate. Even if CSK win by just one run, Delhi would still need to win by more than 200 runs to overhaul that number and influence the standings.
Rajasthan Royals
Rajasthan Royals hold the advantage of controlling their own destiny. If they beat MI on Sunday, they will finish with 16 points and book a playoff place regardless of what happens elsewhere.
There is also a remote possibility of Rajasthan pushing into the top two, depending on how GT and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) fare, but the required margins make that outcome far from straightforward.
GT currently have a higher net run-rate than SRH, and for Rajasthan to pass GT is a difficult ask. For example, if GT lose to CSK by 30 runs, Rajasthan would need to defeat MI by 50 runs. Put simply, the sum of the two relevant margins would need to reach 80 runs or more (assuming a first-innings total of 200).
If Rajasthan lose to MI, their chances shrink dramatically and become dependent on Punjab Kings and KKR both losing their final matches. KKR’s defeat would move Delhi Capitals up to 14 points, but the net run-rate gap is too wide for Delhi to catch Rajasthan. A more immediate risk for Rajasthan is CSK improving their net run-rate: if CSK beat GT on Thursday, their numbers are close enough to allow them to overtake Rajasthan with a relatively modest win.
Rajasthan’s earlier win against LSG also means the final playoff spot will not be settled before May 24, the last day of the league stage.
Punjab Kings
Punjab Kings are still in the race despite a tough run of form, having gone winless in their last six matches. They can still reach the playoffs if they beat LSG on Saturday and finish above KKR on net run-rate, provided Rajasthan lose to MI on Sunday.
The net run-rate advantage Punjab Kings currently hold gives them a meaningful edge in the event of a points tie with KKR. That cushion could prove decisive if results elsewhere set up a direct comparison.
Delhi Capitals
Delhi Capitals have effectively been knocked out by Rajasthan’s latest win. Even if every other outcome goes their way—Punjab Kings, CSK and KKR all staying below 14 points—and Delhi beat KKR, the required margin to pass Rajasthan on net run-rate remains too extreme.
The scenario demands a massive net run-rate swing: the combined margins from Rajasthan’s defeat and Delhi’s victory would need to be around 230 runs for Delhi to end up with a superior net run-rate to Rajasthan.
Elsewhere, Gujarat Titans—on 16 points with a net run-rate of 0.400—take on CSK on Thursday and will be focused on strengthening their position near the top. RCB are too far ahead on net run-rate to be caught, meaning that even if RCB lose their final match by 50 runs, Gujarat would still need to beat CSK by roughly 115 runs to move past them. At the same time, Gujarat will want to finish ahead of Sunrisers Hyderabad (16 points, net run-rate 0.350).
Because the net run-rates between Gujarat Titans and SRH are so close, the group second-place battle is likely to come down to margins. If Gujarat beat CSK by 20 runs (with 200 as a reference first-innings total), then SRH would need to defeat RCB by at least 33 runs to overtake them and secure second place in the standings.
