With 15 league fixtures left, LSG and MI are already out of the playoff conversation, while DC’s path is extremely narrow. RCB, SRH and GT still look set to reach the knockout stage unless results swing sharply against them, and PBKS remains in a strong position even after Monday’s defeat. CSK and RR also hold a slightly better-than-even likelihood of finishing in the top four on points, though ties could play a role. KKR, meanwhile, have only a small opening to qualify.
At a glance: playoff odds for the remaining contenders
- RCB: 88.4% chance to finish in the top four; 59.4% chance to finish in the top two.
- SRH: 88.1% chance to finish in the top four; 59.0% chance to finish in the top two.
- GT: 88.2% chance to finish in the top four; 60.0% chance to finish in the top two.
- PBKS: 64.4% chance to finish in the top four (after Monday’s loss); 28.2% chance to finish in the top two.
- CSK: 53.8% chance to finish in the top four; 22.0% chance to finish in the top two.
- RR: 53.6% chance to finish in the top four; 18.5% chance to finish in the top two.
- KKR: 13.5% chance to finish in the top four; 3.7% chance to finish in the top two.
- DC: 3.2% probability of making the playoffs (can finish as high as third, tied with two to four other teams).
Across the remaining draw, there are 32,768 possible combinations of match outcomes still in play. That wide range is why nothing is sealed yet for any of the eight teams currently in the race, even with the probabilities already pointing to a likely top-four cluster.
Looking first at the three front-runners for a top-four finish, RCB lead the pack with an 88.4% probability of ending inside the top four on points, including scenarios where more than one side could be level on points. Their odds of landing in the top two are also strong at 59.4%. SRH are nearly identical in their outlook: they have an 88.1% chance of a top-four finish and a 59% chance of being in the top two.
GT sit just a fraction behind the top duo for top-four status, with an 88.2% chance to make the cut. Their top-two chances are slightly higher than both RCB and SRH, at 60%. In practical terms, it suggests GT’s route to finishing first or second exists at a similar rate, but they may have a marginal edge when results align.
PBKS’ position has taken a hit after Monday’s loss, pushing their top-four probability down to 64.4%. Their ceiling is much lower as well, with only a 28.2% chance of finishing in the top two. For the teams chasing qualification but not yet firmly in control, this difference highlights how quickly the points table can tighten once a result goes against you.
CSK remain in the mix with a 53.8% likelihood of finishing in the top four, meaning they’re still just on the right side of the line. However, the odds of them being among the top two are far slimmer at 22%. RR are similarly balanced for a top-four berth, with a 53.6% chance, but their top-two odds are even lower at 18.5%.
KKR’s situation is the most restrictive. They have only a 13.5% chance of making the last four, and while they are not entirely eliminated from the top-two picture, the probability is tiny—3.7%. Even if the final table ends up favourably, it would require a very specific combination of results for KKR to rise that high.
DC have kept their playoff dream alive but only just. After Monday’s win, their probability of making the playoffs stands at 3.2%, which still leaves them with a steep mountain to climb. Their best possible outcome is third place, but it would have to come as a tie with anywhere between two and four other teams on points.
How the probabilities were worked out
The calculation is based on the 32,768 possible combinations of results remaining with 15 games to go. For each team, the scenarios were counted in which they end up inside the top four either outright or via ties. The same method was used to count scenarios where each side finishes in the top two, again allowing for both outright and tied finishes.
For example, RCB finish in the top four in 28,980 of those possible outcome combinations. That figure converts to an 88.4% chance of a top-four finish when ties are included. The same approach underpins every percentage listed, helping map how likely each team is to reach the knockout spots as the league stage winds down.
