With ten league matches left, Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) are already effectively out of the playoff race. Gujarat Titans (GT) can still fall short only if results swing against them via net run rate, while Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) are close to sealing a top-four berth. Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) would need an extremely poor run from here to miss out. Rajasthan Royals (RR) have a slightly better-than-even route into the playoffs, and Punjab Kings (PBKS) sit around an even chance of finishing in the top four on points, even if that position is shared. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) have taken a major hit after their loss on Friday, and Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Delhi Capitals (DC) now face very slim odds. In total, there are 1,024 different possible combinations of results still in play, meaning nothing is certain for any of the eight teams involved.
Despite their defeat on Saturday, GT are assured of finishing within the top four on points. They may still end up level on points with as many as four other sides, but their top-four standing is guaranteed based on points alone. Their likelihood of landing either first or second place—whether outright or shared—is a strong 80.5%.
RCB’s position is even more secure: they have a 99.6% chance of finishing in the top four on points. Their odds of finishing in the top two—again, either alone or on level terms—stand at 86.3%.
For SRH, the path remains open. They have an 82% chance of finishing in the top four by points and a 47.3% probability of ending up in the top two.
RR’s prospects have improved. Their chances of making the top four on points are up to 59.1%, with a 26.6% shot at securing one of the top two positions.
PBKS are in the mix but not as firmly placed. Their probability of concluding the league stage inside the top four on points is 50.2%, while their chance of finishing in the top two is 14.1%.
CSK’s route has narrowed considerably. They now have a 34.8% likelihood of finishing among the top four by points, and just a 19.5% chance of ending in the top two.
KKR’s win on Saturday has boosted their playoff chances, but the improvement still leaves them with only a 10% probability of making the last four. They are also no longer able to tie for the top two.
DC’s playoff hopes look even slimmer. Their chances of reaching the playoffs are just 6.1%, and like KKR, they are no longer competing for either of the top-two spots.
How the probabilities are calculated
There are 1,024 possible combinations of match outcomes remaining with ten games left. For each franchise, the analysis checks how many of those scenarios end with the team in the top four on points—either on its own or tied with another side. The same approach is applied to the top two positions, counting scenarios where a team finishes first or second either outright or jointly.
For example, GT are listed as finishing in the top four on points in every one of the 1,024 possible outcome combinations, which equates to a 100% points-based top-four probability. However, because some of those scenarios involve ties, qualification is not treated as fully settled until all tie-break factors are considered.
