As IPL 2026 moves into its final weekend of the league phase, the race for the fourth spot is still very much alive. Three sides—Rajasthan Royals (RR), Punjab Kings (PBKS) and Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR)—still control their destiny to varying degrees, while Delhi Capitals (DC) can only wait for results to fall their way. Here’s the route each team must follow to secure the last playoffs berth.
Rajasthan Royals
Played: 13, Points: 14, NRR: 0.083
Remaining matches: MI (A)
RR’s qualification hopes are entirely in their own hands. A win over MI on Sunday will take them to 16 points and effectively seal their place in the playoffs, no matter what happens elsewhere. However, if they lose to MI, they would only remain in the hunt if both PBKS and KKR also lose their final matches. In that scenario, KKR’s defeat would lift DC to 14 points, but the net run-rate situation would be beyond DC’s reach: DC would have to overcome the combined run-rate swing created by RR’s losing margin and DC’s winning margin, which together would need to total roughly 230 runs.
Punjab Kings
Played: 13, Points: 13, NRR: 0.227
Remaining matches: LSG (A)
PBKS are coming into the last stretch without a win in their previous six games, yet they can still qualify. If they beat LSG on Saturday and finish with a net run-rate better than KKR’s, they will reach the playoffs—provided RR lose to MI on Sunday. PBKS’ healthier net run rate becomes a key advantage in any tie-break scenario involving KKR. Even in a narrow PBKS win—say they beat LSG by just one run—KKR would then need to defeat DC by at least 52 runs to overhaul PBKS on NRR. If PBKS win by 10 runs instead, KKR’s required margin rises to 61 runs to get past PBKS’ run-rate.
Kolkata Knight Riders
Played: 13, Points: 13, NRR: 0.011
Remaining matches: DC (H)
KKR are in a stronger position for one simple reason: a win over DC at home would guarantee their qualification, but it also comes with a condition on the other results. That automatic path would hold if RR and PBKS both lose their respective final matches. If PBKS and KKR both win, while RR suffers defeat, the contest would shift to net run rates. In that event, KKR would again need to win by a very large margin to beat PBKS on the run-rate comparison, echoing the tough margin requirement outlined in PBKS’ calculations.
Delhi Capitals
Played: 13, Points: 12, NRR: -0.871
Remaining matches: KKR (A)
DC’s most dominant IPL win margin stands at 97 runs when they bat first, and they have even chased down targets with 67 balls remaining. Still, to have any realistic shot at the fourth position, DC would need results to swing dramatically in their favour — not just by winning, but by winning convincingly. Beyond the hope that RR are thrashed by MI, DC would also need PBKS to lose to LSG. Even with DC capable of big performances, this particular set of outcomes is far more likely to be shaped by luck than by a straightforward path—closer to a fantasy than a formula.
