With six league matches still to be played, Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) have already fallen outside the playoff picture. Meanwhile, Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Gujarat Titans (GT) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) have booked their places in the top four. Rajasthan Royals (RR) currently hold the strongest position among the remaining contenders, with Punjab Kings (PBKS) next in line, while Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR), Delhi Capitals (DC) and Chennai Super Kings (CSK) remain mathematically alive but with very slim odds. The permutations are still wide: there are 64 possible combinations of results from here, so the playoff race is not settled yet for any of the five teams chasing qualification.
Key takeaways
- RCB are guaranteed to reach the playoffs and, at minimum, finish level for first place on points.
- RR’s recent victory has boosted their probability of ending in the top four to 68.8%.
- PBKS can only reach fourth place alone (18.8%) or share it with KKR (6.3%)—that is their ceiling from this stage.
- KKR’s chance of finishing in the top four (on their own or shared) is 12.5%.
- DC’s probability of making the last four is also 12.5%, with any tie involving either RR or KKR.
- CSK’s best possible outcome is a shared fourth place with RR or KKR, but the likelihood is just 9.4%.
Where the playoff race stands
As things stand with six games left, RCB, GT and SRH have already qualified for the playoffs. Among the chasing pack, RR lead the race for the remaining positions, followed by PBKS. KKR, DC and CSK are still technically in contention, but their paths require specific outcomes across the remaining fixtures.
What the probability scenarios say
RCB are in the strongest position of all. They are assured of qualification and can still end up finishing tied for first place on points at worst. Even in their toughest scenario, RCB could find themselves in a three-team tie for the top position alongside GT and SRH. In addition, both GT and SRH have already qualified, and the combined chance of landing at least a shared second spot for each of them is a solid 75%.
RR’s trajectory improved after Tuesday’s win. Their likelihood of finishing among the top four on points now stands at 68.8%. RR can still reach a three-way tie for the second-place spot with SRH and GT, and that specific scenario has a 12.5% probability.
For PBKS, the ceiling is narrow. They can finish alone in fourth place with an 18.8% chance. Alternatively, they can still make the top four by tying for fourth with KKR, which carries a 6.3% probability.
KKR’s odds of making the last four—either outright or by sharing—are 12.5%. If KKR end up in a tie for that final qualifying position, it will be with PBKS.
DC’s mathematics are also limited to a 12.5% chance of finishing in the top four on points. If DC do qualify via a tie, it will be shared with either RR or KKR.
CSK’s best-case route is a shared fourth-place finish with RR or KKR, but the probability of even that outcome is only 9.4%. Beyond that, CSK’s remaining chances are even slimmer, given how many result combinations they must rely on.
How the calculations are made
The probabilities are derived from the remaining permutations in the league stage. With six matches left, there are 64 possible combinations of results. For each team, the analysis counts how many of those combinations place them in the top four—either by finishing alone or by ending up tied on points. A separate count is also made for how often each side can occupy the top two positions—again, whether outright or shared. For example, RCB finish first on points in all 64 combinations, sometimes as sole leaders and sometimes as joint leaders.
