With 68 league matches already completed, IPL 2026 has produced 25,105 runs and 793 wickets—and now the tournament’s league phase is set to boil down to a single, high-pressure day. Only one playoff place is still unclaimed. Three franchises remain in the hunt, and by Sunday night, two of those hopes will be extinguished while the third will keep its season alive in the postseason.
Top two confirmed as the playoff race narrows
Royal Challengers Bengaluru and Gujarat Titans have already secured the first two positions and will lock horns in Qualifier 1. Both sides finished the league stage on 18 points, ensuring their places above the rest, with their final matchup coming on the remaining playoff schedule.
Sunrisers Hyderabad, also ending on 18 points, have been placed third due to a lower net run rate. Hyderabad are therefore set for the Eliminator and will watch the outcome of Super Sunday to determine their opponent.
The Super Sunday equation: one spot on the line
The fourth and last berth is still undecided, and it all comes down to the results of two matches on the final day:
- Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians
- Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals
Current points before the matches
- Punjab Kings (PBKS): 15 points (all matches completed)
- Rajasthan Royals (RR): 14 points (1 match remaining vs MI)
- Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR): 13 points (1 match remaining vs DC)
Where PBKS stand
Punjab Kings’ league campaign is already finished after 14 matches, leaving them with 15 points. They currently sit in fourth place, but their qualification chances are no longer entirely within their control.
Qualification scenarios: who needs what
Super Sunday’s permutations are clear at first glance, but the net run rate factor makes the endgame tense—particularly for KKR.
Punjab Kings qualify if…
- RR lose to MI.
- If KKR lose, PBKS qualify outright.
- If KKR beat DC in a match that is washed out or played under a result scenario that still keeps PBKS ahead, PBKS edge KKR on net run rate.
If KKR win and the match result allows them to leap in points, the tie-break becomes crucial: PBKS’ net run rate advantage is significant enough that the situation can swing only if KKR produce a truly dominant performance.
Rajasthan Royals qualify if…
- RR beat MI.
That result would take Rajasthan to 16 points, automatically placing them above Punjab Kings (15) and above KKR’s maximum possible total (15). In that case, net run rate calculations would not be required.
KKR qualify if…
- RR lose to MI.
- KKR beat DC by enough margin to surpass PBKS on net run rate.
KKR are currently on a net run rate of +0.011, which trails PBKS’ +0.309. That means a win alone will not guarantee qualification; KKR would need a massive win and the right chase dynamics depending on the target.
Two ways KKR can qualify: bat first or chase
If KKR bat first, they would likely need a victory margin of roughly 76 runs or more to move past PBKS on net run rate. If KKR chase, the scoring rate requirement becomes even steeper, with the chase needing to be completed around the 12-over mark or faster depending on the total.
KKR batting first: margin targets
KKR chase successfully: target ranges and over requirements
- Target 140–160: chase within 12 overs.
- Target 161–180: chase within 12.1 overs.
- Target 181–200: chase within 12.1 overs.
- Target 201–220: chase within 12.2 overs.
- Target 221–240: chase within 12.3 overs.
How the day can end: immediate knockout or a tense turnaround
The afternoon match between RR and MI carries extra weight because its outcome can decide everything instantly.
- If RR beat MI, the playoff race is decided immediately. Rajasthan become the fourth qualifier, and the evening game between KKR and DC becomes irrelevant for qualification.
- If MI upset RR, the situation turns into a virtual knockout at Eden Gardens. In that scenario, PBKS’ attention will shift to Delhi Capitals, with Punjab Kings hoping DC either win outright or at least avoid a heavy defeat.
KKR, meanwhile, will head into their match knowing exactly what they must achieve once the first result lands—because qualification is ultimately about the combination of points, net run rate, and the margin needed to swing the numbers.
One final day. Two matches. Three contenders. And just one remaining seat in the playoffs.
