The fight for a place in the IPL 2026 playoffs was decided right at the end, with Rajasthan Royals confirming their spot as the fourth team on Sunday during the final round of league-stage action. The Royals joined Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans and Sunrisers Hyderabad as the top four sides. With the league phase wrapped up, RCB—the defending champions—will meet GT in Qualifier 1 at Dharamsala on Tuesday, May 26. SRH and RR are then scheduled to battle in the Eliminator at Mullanpur on Wednesday in another must-win game. Yet if recent IPL trends are anything to go by, the Rajasthan squad featuring Vaibhav Sooryavanshi may not be the side that ultimately hoists the trophy this year.
The loser of Qualifier 1 will take on the winner of the Eliminator on Friday, with the prize of a spot in the Ahmedabad final at stake. Even so, RR face an uncomfortable slice of IPL history: since the current playoff structure was introduced, no team that finished fourth in the league stage has ever gone on to win the IPL.
Numbers also point toward a familiar pattern at the top. Finishing inside the top two is typically the clearest route to championship success, with a team seeded in the top pairing going on to claim the title in the overwhelming majority of seasons.
Second-place finishers have been especially impressive across editions. That trend mirrored last season as well, when RCB pulled off a major upset against league leaders Punjab Kings in the final.
At the same time, IPL history does contain a notable exception. SRH remain the only franchise from the playoff era to capture the title after starting the playoffs outside the top two—doing it in 2016 when they entered from third place.
On Sunday’s penultimate day, RR underlined their momentum by beating Mumbai Indians by 30 runs at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai. Rajasthan managed to defend a target of 205, and head coach Kumar Sangakkara praised his bowlers for holding their line in the pressure moments.
“During the last timeout, it was just about sticking to plans and holding your nerve. When you go to the back end, it’s all about who responds better under pressure. All the bowlers did a brilliant job. And on the field, we were pretty tidy,” Sangakkara said.
