Royal Challengers Bengaluru climbed to the summit of the IPL 2026 points table after overpowering Kolkata Knight Riders with a six-wicket win in Raipur on Wednesday. Virat Kohli set the tone with a superb unbeaten 105, steering his side to victory and delivering a major lift to their postseason hopes. With 16 points from 12 matches, RCB sit in a strong position, but the equation for the final top-four spots is far from settled with only two games left. Losing both remaining fixtures—against Sunrisers Hyderabad and Punjab Kings—would place them in a precarious position. Even winning just one match would take them to 18 points, yet qualification could still hinge on Net Run Rate (NRR), with RCB potentially missing the playoffs purely due to that tiebreaker.
RCB’s win changes the points race
The victory ensured RCB finished the day at the top of the standings, but the margin for error remains. With two matches remaining, their points tally can still end up anywhere from 16 to 18, depending on results. If they fail in both games, they stay on 16. If they win once, they reach 18 and then watch how the NRR and other contenders fall into place.
How the permutations shape the top-four battle
Three other teams—Gujarat Titans, Chennai Super Kings, and Rajasthan Royals—are still capable of reaching 18 points, meaning RCB’s playoff fate may come down to calculations involving NRR even after they put points on the board. Meanwhile, the race is not limited to those three sides alone: Punjab Kings and Sunrisers Hyderabad also have pathways that could see them reach or surpass the 18-point threshold depending on how their remaining fixtures play out.
- RCB currently have 16 points from 12 matches.
- They have two remaining matches: versus Sunrisers Hyderabad and Punjab Kings.
- If RCB lose both, they remain at 16 points, making qualification extremely challenging.
- If RCB win one game, they finish on 18 points, but qualification could still depend on Net Run Rate (NRR).
- Gujarat Titans, Chennai Super Kings, and Rajasthan Royals can also reach 18 points.
- RCB could miss the playoffs solely due to NRR outcomes.
- Punjab Kings and Sunrisers Hyderabad may also reach or exceed 18 points based on results.
Where KKR stand and playoff probabilities for the contenders
Kolkata Knight Riders, despite still being in the hunt, face a tough task. To keep their top-four hopes alive, they need to win all three of their remaining matches, which would bring their tally to 15 points. With the tournament nearing its climax, KKR’s route to the playoffs requires not only wins but also a significant number of results elsewhere going their way.
Even with RCB sitting first in the table, the current playoff-probability picture suggests Gujarat Titans have the best chance of finishing in the top four. The Shubman Gill-led side is listed with a 94.8% likelihood of making the playoffs. RCB follow with a 92.6% chance. Sunrisers Hyderabad are next at 64.7%, while Punjab Kings sit at 62.8%. Chennai Super Kings are placed at 41.7%, and Rajasthan Royals are at 40.6%.
- KKR must win all three remaining matches to reach 15 points.
- Gujarat Titans have the highest playoff probability at 94.8%.
- RCB are second with a 92.6% chance.
- Sunrisers Hyderabad have a 64.7% chance.
- Punjab Kings have a 62.8% chance.
- Chennai Super Kings have a 41.7% chance.
- Rajasthan Royals have a 40.6% chance.
