GT’s emphatic 89-run victory over CSK at home on Thursday, May 21, wrapped up a top-two berth for the franchise for the third time in just five seasons. With that result settled, RCB and SRH will fight for the remaining place in Qualifier 1 at Dharamsala. Meanwhile, RR, PBKS and KKR are still in the running for the fourth spot. For every NRR permutation mentioned below, the calculations have been carried out assuming a first-innings total of 200.
The big one: SRH vs RCB, Hyderabad — May 22
What does SRH have to do to land inside the top two? In the scenario they still control their qualification through the tie-break pathway, they can go up to 11.3 overs while chasing, provided they hit a six after the scores are level—something that has taken place before in the IPL.
RR vs MI, Mumbai WS — May 24
Looking at the situation for RR, if they suffer defeat, their route to the final top-four spot is only possible under specific conditions: the equation depends on how the other matches conclude and how the NRR landscape shifts across the remaining fixtures.
LSG vs PBKS (May 23) and KKR vs DC (May 24)
PBKS can reach qualification without leaning on NRR, provided all of the following three results fall their way. In parallel, KKR can also qualify without the NRR factor if another set of outcomes goes in their favour.
What happens if both PBKS and KKR win and RR finish at 14?
If PBKS defeat LSG by 10 runs on Saturday, they will close the league stage on 15 points with an NRR of +0.246. For KKR to overtake them, the required outcome depends on the margin and the resulting NRR adjustments.
What about DC?
There is a further scenario involving DC where they could finish tied on 14 points with RR, while both PBKS and KKR end on 13. Even then, DC’s fragile NRR of -0.871 means they would still be unable to qualify. To add one more layer: if MI beat RR by 100 runs, RR’s NRR would fall to -0.308. For DC to move above that threshold, they would need to beat KKR by at least 129 runs.
